For potential homebuyers, renters, and current owners across British Columbia, the housing market feels like a source of constant confusion and anxiety. A common sentiment echoes in conversations and online forums: "something has to change." While headlines often swing between dramatic predictions of a crash and promises of a rebound, the reality on the ground is a complex and often contradictory mix of signals. The market is at a crossroads, defined by powerful forces pulling in opposite directions.
The truth is that the BC housing market is not one single story. It's a collection of regional trends, economic shifts, and demographic surprises that don't fit neatly into a simple narrative. To move beyond the noise, it's essential to look at the hard data and the underlying forces shaping the future.
This article distills the five most impactful and unexpected takeaways from recent economic reports and market data. By examining these key realities, we can build a clearer, more nuanced picture of what is really happening in British Columbia's housing market and what to expect as we move toward 2026.
A 'Correction,' Not a Crash: Vancouver Has Shifted to a Buyer's Market
While many have been waiting for a dramatic market crash, a significant correction is already underway in Metro Vancouver, shifting power firmly into the hands of buyers. While a "crash" often implies a sudden, steep drop of 20% or more, the current "correction" is a more gradual but significant rebalancing. This shift is not based on sentiment, but on clear economic drivers: high interest rates mean fewer households qualify for mortgages, and a surge in supply has inventory levels at their highest point in three years.
The data confirms this power shift. Detached house prices have plunged below the $1.94 million psychological barrier that was established in January 2024. The result is a market now described as a "strong buyer's market," where purchasers have more negotiating power than they've had in a long time.
This trend is not limited to single-family homes. The condo market is mirroring this downturn, with benchmark prices falling steadily. This creates a painful squeeze for investors, who face falling property values combined with rising mortgage payments as their 2020/21 mortgages renew at higher rates. This pressure is compounded by a softening rental market, where the average asking rent for one-bedroom apartments has dropped by 7% over the past year. For those waiting for a change, this is it—a real, tangible rebalancing of market dynamics.
The Great Divergence: While Vancouver Cools, Some Regions Sizzle
This cooling trend in Vancouver is not the whole story. A closer look at regional data reveals a crucial market divergence, proving that "the BC housing market" is a myth; it's a patchwork of many local markets, each with its own logic. This is one of the most counter-intuitive realities: while the province’s largest urban centre slows, other regions are actively heating up.
The Okanagan stands out as the primary example. According to the July 2025 market report, the region is experiencing a surge in activity:
• In the North Okanagan, total sales volume soared by an incredible 26.35% year-over-year.
• In the Central Okanagan, the number of units sold increased by 10.80%compared to the previous year, and properties are moving much faster, taking an average of 55 days to sell, down from 68 days a year ago.
What’s driving this split? It’s not just local economics; it's a demographic shift. As one observer noted, a common trend is emerging: "At my workplace, everyone who retires is selling their metro van house and buying small town property." This migration of equity-rich retirees and remote workers from major centres is fueling demand and creating hot spots, even as the broader provincial market appears to cool.
Myth Buster: BC's Population Growth Is About to Go Negative
For years, one narrative has dominated every discussion about BC's housing crisis: relentless, massive population growth is the primary engine of demand. Recent government data, however, reveals a surprising and fundamental shift in this trend, challenging a key assumption about the future.
According to the BC Government's First Quarterly Report from September 2025, international migration to the province has slowed significantly following the implementation of new federal immigration plans. This slowdown is so pronounced that it has led to a startling forecast.
The report projects that BC's July 1 population will decline by 0.2% in 2026. This is a critical and unexpected takeaway. For years, the market has been analyzed through the lens of endlessly increasing demand fueled by population growth. A projected decline, even a small and temporary one, fundamentally alters the equation and suggests that the intense demand pressure seen in recent years is set to ease.
Don't Be Fooled by the Quiet: Forecasters See a Surge in Activity for 2026
On the surface, the data seems to contradict itself: if the population is projected to decline, how can the housing market be forecast to rebound? This brings us to a critical tension in the market's future. The consensus among forecasters is that the current downturn in market activity is expected to be short-lived, with a sharp rebound in the number of sales projected for 2026.
This forecast is shared across major real estate and government bodies:
• The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) forecasts a 12.8% rise in MLS® residential sales in 2026.
• The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts a 7.7% national rebound, which would bring activity to its highest level since 2021.
• The BC Government forecasts that unit home sales will rebound by 12.3%.
The key takeaway here is not just the numbers, but the distinction between sales volume and prices. This rebound is about transactions, not an immediate price explosion. The BCREA notes that with stabilizing economic factors like easing tariff uncertainty, "markets are expected to be balanced in 2026, with limited price growth." While they do anticipate the average price will rise roughly four per cent to $995,600, they specify that "this increase will largely reflect composition effects, as the sales recovery in higher-priced markets in the Lower Mainland catches up to the rest of the province."
BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson provides crucial context for this outlook:
“After lofty expectations heading into the year, both the 2025 economy and housing market have disappointed. However, with tariff uncertainty lingering but far less prominent, we expect a strong hand-off to 2026 as activity closes out 2025 on an upswing.”
The Unsolvable Core: Why the Affordability Gap Is the Real Story
While a rebound in market activity may seem like good news, it masks the market's unsolvable core: a staggering and persistent gap between median incomes and the cost of entry-level homeownership. This structural affordability crisis is the fundamental issue that temporary market fluctuations—or even a rebound in sales—cannot fix.
A sobering calculation from the Vancouver Real Estate Forecast illustrates the scale of the problem. A household earning the median income of 75,000** can typically secure a mortgage of around 300,000. To purchase a benchmark condo priced at 680,000, that household would need a cash down payment of **380,000. For most working families, accumulating such a sum is an insurmountable barrier.
This mathematical reality is a source of widespread frustration, a sentiment captured perfectly by one online commentator's reflection on the market:
"For those without [equity or family money] home ownership is unlikely in the major centres. You need to be bringing in a household income of $300,000+ and even then you will be stretched (for detached homes, not condos). Most people simply don’t have this."
This gap is the central truth of BC's housing market. It tempers any optimism about a "rebound," reminding us that more houses changing hands does not mean more people can afford to buy them.
A Market Undecided
The data paints a picture of a British Columbia housing market that defies simple explanations. It's a market cooling in its largest urban centre while simultaneously heating up in other desirable regions. It is facing an unexpected, albeit temporary, population dip, yet one that forecasters believe is poised for a surge in sales activity driven by stabilizing economic conditions, not a massive price boom.
This is a market caught in a central conflict: a temporary, cyclical cooling period is providing some relief for buyers, but it does little to address the deep, structural affordability crisis that defines the long-term reality for most residents. These conflicting signals place the market at a critical crossroads.
As we look toward 2026, the key question isn't just if the market will rebound, but who will be able to participate when it does?
~ Nov 25, 2025
JJ